No point going lower. Pure cost + minimum risk cover.
Average across 9 winners in Biurowiec Lubelskie over 18 months. Enough to cover your crew and still sleep at night.
The margin looks lovely. Odds of winning — 1 in 5. By the record — 0 of 11 in this niche.
Win zone for this tender
based on 21 closed tenders · Biurowiec · Lubelskie · 18 mo.
What the history says
Over the last 18 months in the Lubelskie voivodeship, on biurowiec-type projects there were 21 tenders. You bid on 11. Won 0. Your best result — 3rd place, a 14% gap to the winner.
Of those 11: in 9 cases you would have won by cutting 8–14% off your current estimate.
The problem isn't the quality of your estimate. The problem is you're pricing in a 23–26% margin in a niche where the winners run on 9–14%. You don't need a better estimate. You need a different niche — or a different price.
| Niche | Region | Your margin | Winners | Win-rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hala produkcyjna | Lubelskie | 22% | 14–20% | 42% |
| Rekonstrukcja zabytkowa | PL-Wsch. | 28% | 22–28% | 50% |
| Centrum medyczne | Małopolska | 24% | 18–24% | 38% |
| Biurowiec | Lubelskie | 22% | 9–14% | 0% |